Heat stress could cost Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal the equivalent of 2.5 million full-time jobs by 2040
ABIDJAN (ILO News) – Rising temperatures and workplace heat stress are already affecting workers, productivity and economies in Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal, according to new studies by the International Labour Organization (ILO).
The findings show that the economic and employment consequences could intensify substantially in the coming decades.
By 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway, reduced working time caused by rising heat stress is projected to amount to the equivalent of around 2.46 million full-time jobs across the three countries: approximately 1.78 million in Ethiopia, 550,000 in Ghana and 129,000 in Senegal.
Under the same pathway, combined annual GDP losses are projected at around US$67 billion by 2040, including US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia, US$23.2 billion in Ghana and US$10.5 billion in Senegal, compared with the historical reference period.
The studies also show that heat stress is not only a future risk. In 2023, rising workplace heat associated with climate change resulted in significant additional losses of working time and economic output compared with the historical baseline in all three countries.
Agriculture and construction are among the sectors most exposed because of the physical nature of the work and high levels of outdoor employment. But the impact extends well beyond these sectors, affecting manufacturing, transport, trade and services, as well as workers and enterprises in the informal economy.
Different economies, a shared challenge
The scale and distribution of the impact varies considerably between the three countries.
In Ethiopia, more than one million additional full-time equivalent jobs were lost to workplace heat stress in 2023 compared with an average year during the historical reference period. Agriculture accounted for around three-quarters of those losses. By 2040, the equivalent of approximately 1.78 million full-time jobs could be lost under a low-emissions pathway.
Governments, employers and workers need to act together, combining stronger occupational safety and health measures with social protection, climate adaptation and economic planning.
Fanfan Rwanyindo Kayirangwa, ILO Regional Director for Africa
n Ghana, workplace heat stress accounted for the equivalent of more than 345,000 additional full-time jobs lost in 2023, with agriculture representing around two-thirds of the total. By 2040, that figure could rise to around 550,000 full-time equivalent jobs under a low-emissions pathway.
In Senegal, nearly 72,000 additional full-time equivalent jobs were lost in 2023 because of rising workplace heat stress. The impact was concentrated particularly in services and agriculture. By 2040, losses could reach the equivalent of approximately 129,000 full-time jobs under a low-emissions pathway.
“These findings make clear that heat stress is not only an environmental issue. It is already a jobs, health and economic issue. Governments, employers and workers need to act together, combining stronger occupational safety and health measures with social protection, climate adaptation and economic planning. Protecting people from heat means protecting livelihoods, enterprises and the resilience of our economies,” said Fanfan Rwanyindo Kayirangwa, ILO Regional Director for Africa.
Building resilience in the world of work
The studies identify practical measures that can reduce the impact of rising heat.
These include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods of the day, introducing appropriate work-rest cycles, providing shade, hydration and cooling facilities, strengthening workplace heat monitoring and occupational safety and health standards, and improving awareness of the symptoms and risks of heat stress.
The findings also point to the importance of social protection, particularly for workers in the informal economy who may be unable to reduce their working hours without losing essential income.
Responses will need to reflect the different realities of workers and economic sectors in each country. Social dialogue between governments, employers and workers will be critical to developing measures that are both effective and practical.
The Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal studies form part of a six-country research initiative that also covers Lebanon, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The studies were commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), with funding provided through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.
The research combines climate projections, labour market data and economic modelling to assess the current and future effects of workplace heat stress on productivity, employment and national economies.
As temperatures continue to rise, protecting workers while supporting enterprises to adapt will be an increasingly important part of a just transition. The ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all provide a framework for addressing the employment and social dimensions of climate and environmental change.
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